After decades lying dormant inflation has picked up dramatically in most major economies over the past 12 months. Australia has so far lagged this inflation surge, though we expect local inflation to accelerate significantly through the first half of this year. We look at what is driving the surge and whether it is transitory.

The US Federal Reserve (the Fed) raised its official Fed Funds (cash) rate by 25 basis points last Wednesday. We examine the history of Fed hiking cycles for clues on how the market will respond.

With the significant flattening of the yield curve in recent weeks we delve into the historical link between the shape of the curve and US recessions.

Markets remain on edge as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine combined with ongoing concerns around inflation and interest rates continue to create volatile conditions. While we have some tactical caution, we retain our constructive 12-month outlook for domestic (preferred) and global equities. Here we delve into the wall of worry.

While equity markets remain on edge over the outlook for global inflation and more recently the Russia Ukraine situation, the robust global earnings picture continues to provide a degree of underlying support to the equity market outlook.

Our quarterly managed funds report outlines the pathway best-suited to deliver on our current asset allocation strategy.

Off the back of the RBA’s release of its Quarterly Statement of Monetary Policy, we share our domestic economic outlook, speaking to the inflation and interest rate outlook and the implications for asset markets.

While January saw the largest equity correction since the dramatic March 2020 COVID sell-off we explore our view that the recent pullback is more likely to be an overdue correction than the front end of a bear market. We unpack the signposts we use for assessing corrections versus bear markets.